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Political analyses and commentaries on “Macroeconomy” topic

Reflections on the budget for 2011
Iurie Gotisan, March 15, 2011
We can already see that the approval of the state budget for 2011, even at this stage, i.e. by the government, is a welcome gesture as such. Being primarily a political document and than a economic one, the budget projection understandably provoked disputes not only between government and the opposition, but also between parties in AIE[…]
Economy at the verge of years: what was done and what to do
Iurie Gotisan, December 31, 2010
The macroeconomic situation brought positive results at the end of the year. In particular, the economic growth rate makes 2010 a year of special economic evolution and any critical spirit should recognise it. But this growth rate would unlikely last, should it keep relying on consumption, and authorities themselves have signalled this fact[…]
Economy: retrospectives 2009 vs. forecasts 2010
Iurie Gotisan, December 31, 2009
The economic crisis had more or less devastating effects on Moldova in 2009 for sure. The Moldovan crisis does not have distinct particularities in general. This crisis is afferent to an economy which is quasi dependent on external factors, as the economic growth in the latest period was particularly due to earnings of Moldovan migrants working abroad, which means that the economy is mainly based on consumption[…]
Government, IMF and public funds
Iurie Gotisan, October 18, 2009
The IMF Mission which started working in Chisinau last week seems to have been long-awaited, particularly by authorities. The potential assistance of the Fund could be a “life buoy”. At the same time, the advantage of signing an external funding agreement with IMF is that “import of credibility” if you want, respectively the absence of such an agreement is a major risk for the way Moldova is regarded by foreign investors, especially in the current economic and political conjuncture[…]
Moldovan economy and IMF
Iurie Gotisan, May 31, 2009
Unquestionably, the IMF and WB are the key creditors of the Republic of Moldova. Absolutely, the assistance provided by these organisations was very important throughout years. But one should note that sometimes the policies of these organisations towards Moldova did not always meet the social security interests of population[…]
International ratings, external deficits, exchange rate…
Iurie Gotisan, March 31, 2009
The Economist Intelligence Unit, part of the well-known British magazine The Economist, has recently published a report on vulnerability of countries of the world to consequences of the world economic crisis. The report ranks the Republic of Moldova, Ukraine and Bosnia-Herzegovina as most politically unstable countries and therefore, very vulnerable to economic developments[…]
Economic retrospectives for 2008
Iurie Gotisan, December 31, 2008
In economic terms, 2008 seems to be one of the best years for Moldova after 1998. The economic growth pace of about 8 percent (according to official statistics) made 2008 a special year in terms of dynamic of Moldovan economy in the last years (despite all disasters that hit it, climatic, financial or economic) and any critical spirit should probably admit this fact[…]
Dynamic of economy: truth or challenge?
Iurie Gotisan, September 30, 2008
The 5.4-percent economic growth for the 1st semester (GDP rose by 6.2 percent in the 2nd quarter of 2008) is surprising, though it slowed down much in the last two years[…]
Moldova 2008: the new — old challenges for the economy
Galina Selari, January 31, 2008
The new year of 2008 traditionally began with summing up of the results for the previous year. We have to note that 2007 saw completion of both the first cycle of implementation of the “new economic policy” (Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy for 2004–2006 and the Moldova-EU Action Plan for 2005–2007) and preparation and approval of the National Development Strategy for 2008–2011[…]
Inflation: thinking aloud
Galina Selari, December 16, 2007
Today, due to quite understandable reasons, growth of prices for basic food products, such as milk, butter, bread represents a concern both for the government and the population. According to the official statistic data, to a large extent these are the very goods that caused increased prices in the economy as a whole[…]
Inflation is thickening
Iurie Gotisan, December 3, 2007
Official data of the National Bureau for Statistics (NBS) have confirmed our forecasts regarding the inflation for October 2007. Thus, according to NBS, the inflation in October was 1.6 percent, while the cumulated inflation rate for ten months has reached 10.7 percent[…]
Political consensus vs. competitiveness of public policies
Iurie Gotisan, September 30, 2007
I have recently attended an International Conference organised by the Independent Analytical Centre Expert-Grup in partnership with the Ministry of Economy and Commerce, which focussed on the National Development Plan (NDP)[…]
Reflections on draft budget law for 2008
Iurie Gotisan, September 19, 2007
The draft budget law for 2008 may be commented from two viewpoints or on two directions in terms of quantity and quality, if saying this way[…]
Statistical trends vs. economic expectations
Iurie Gotisan, July 16, 2007
I have recently read several articles about data on economic growth and inflation, in particular, concerning the correctness of these figures. As a sentence cannot synthesise an economic book, I will also try to explain these indicators, especially the inflation rate[…]
Salaries correlate with productivity, too
Iurie Gotisan, July 3, 2007
The Government has plans to increase three-fold the salaries of budgetary workers by 2009, while the minimum monthly pay is expected to grow up to 400 lei; official statistics reveal that the things go in the right direction regarding the monthly advance of medium wage on economy[…]
Strong leu, great leu or new heights for the dollar?!
Iurie Gotisan, May 15, 2007
Beyond various figures advanced by economists, bankers or analysts of financial market in their commentaries on exchange rates, two words revealing a convergence of opinions are often found[…]
Problem of exchange rate and currency market
Iurie Gotisan, April 15, 2007
The leu appreciated by nearly 4 percent versus dollar and more than 1 percent versus euro in the past three years. The appreciation of the leu versus euro and U.S. dollar seems to be excessive and unsustainable on long term and unbalances of economy could produce an abrupt depreciation soon[…]
Fiscal revolution: for or against?
Iurie Gotisan, April 1, 2007
The Government has recently examined the draft tax policy of Moldova for 2008–2010, in which several scenarios of policies have been evaluated, including very bold ones on reduction of taxes[…]
“Happy” accident and foreign financing
Iurie Gotisan, January 31, 2007
The National Bureau for Statistics (NBS) released last week updated data on economic growth for 2005. According to NBS, a 7.5-percent growth was registered in 2005, which is by 0.4 percentage points more than officially announced (7.1 percent) in March 2006[…]
Dilemma of economic growth
Iurie Gotisan, December 30, 2006
I have indicated in the precedent issue of our publication the growth of GDP in January-September 2006 and benefits “harvested” by common people from this rise. With permission of our readers, I will develop the same topic in this article[…]
GDP is on the rise, but citizen does not feel it much?!
Iurie Gotisan, December 15, 2006
The GDP has grown!!! Official statistics have released a communication showing that the “character” called GDP, which was capable to ensure Moldovans with many things that they wanted, rose by 4.6% in January-September[…]
Leu — “holy column” of economy
Iurie Gotisan, December 1, 2006
The Moldovan leu turned 13 on November 29. It is not a very long period, but also not too short and the central bank has managed to prevent a system crisis by playing the role of a guardian that ensures the stability of the “holy column” of economy — the “strong leu” — in spite of all difficulties[…]
State budget for 2007
Iurie Gotisan, October 31, 2006
The draft law proposed by Government is built on a 4% growth of GDP, up to 46.6 billion lei or 3.5 billion dollars, a 10.5% inflation rate, an exchange rate of 14.1 lei per dollar and a 15% rise of exports and a 12% advance of imports[…]
Inflation growth adjusted to statistics
Iurie Gotisan, September 15, 2006
The Moldovan inflation reveals rather a clear season nature manifested steadily in January-April and August-October of every year. This is linked to a high dependence of economy on agriculture, massive import and emerging markets[…]
Macroeconomic trends in 2006… and forecasts
Iurie Gotisan, July 31, 2006
The country’s economy has grown by 6.2% in the first half of this year. This is a pretty strong growth, given the internal and external shocks faced by economy in the period concerned[…]
External deficits vs. deficit of economic stability
Iurie Gotisan, April 28, 2006
Everybody knows that the Moldovan economy is incapable to fight face to face with European economies. The trade deficit and current account deficit grow in a galloping pace every year, with analysts saying that this rise will continue the next years as well[…]
Betting on exchange rate
Iurie Gotisan, February 28, 2006
Beyond different figures unveiled by bankers, two words are often met in their commentaries on exchange rate that indicate a convergence of opinions[…]
Syntheses of 2005 and major financial uncertainties of 2006
Ion Basiul, January 15, 2006
Year 2005 was one of the most difficult and provocative years. It began with the signing of the Moldova-European Union Action Plan[…]
Economic growth of conjuncture
Iurie Gotisan, November 7, 2005
President Voronin has recently attended an ordinary cabinet sitting and bitterly criticized the executive, indicating in particular the low quality of economic growth, lack of initiative and poor execution discipline[…]
Banks punished
Iurie Gotisan, October 25, 2005
The bank system in Moldova has visibly developed the past years in spite of a not very favorable external environment. Indicators of financial position of commercial banks have remained relatively high, while year 2004 confirmed this evolution one more time[…]
GDP is on the rise despite unfavorable circumstances
Iurie Gotisan, September 26, 2005
Despite some negative circumstances, GDP is on the rise[…]
Foreseeing for inflation: optimism of authorities will “face” the bitter reality
Iurie Gotisan, July 11, 2005
Internal and external dangers threaten the 10-percent annual inflation rate[…]
Macroeconomic evolutions. Tendencies for future
Iurie Gotisan, June 19, 2005
Statistics on macroeconomic evolutions in the first quarter of 2005 followed the general expectations for the year[…]
Foreign deficits, inflation, exchange rate…
Iurie Gotisan, March 6, 2005
Fitch Ratings warns that the economic and political situation in Moldova remains “very difficult” amidst growth of foreign debt, high domestic inflation and strong exchange rate[…]
Economic retrospectives & perspectives
Iurie Gotisan, January 16, 2005
Economic growth, which according to the preliminary data might reach 7%, made this year quite special, fact acknowledged by economy-watchers, even the most sceptical ones[…]
Inflation rate gives headache
Iurie Gotisan, December 12, 2004
This year we would over-perform on economic growth and under-perform on inflation[…]
Financial rating and foreign competitiveness of Moldova
Iurie Gotisan, November 14, 2004
In spite of economic growth, FITCH did not raise the country rating for the Republic of Moldova, on the grounds the pace of reforms is to slow, while foreign debt is too big[…]
What’s in their for us in the draft budget for 2005?
Iurie Gotisan, October 31, 2004
Electoral promises made in the draft budget for year 2005: raising minimal wages, additional spending for budgetary institutions, indemnifying pensions, raising allocations and compensations[…]
Indebtedness threatens the stability of domestic economy
Iurie Gotisan, September 26, 2004
Arrears increasingly impinge on economic system which in the end may destabilize still fragile economy. Arrears account for 30% of the GDP, and this despite its growth in the recent years and write-off of “historic” debts especially to state-owned enterprises via Prime-Minister decrees[…]
Domestic foreign exchange market: on-going volatility
Iurie Gotisan, May 9, 2004
In the last two weeks Moldova Lei constantly appreciated against USD by 11.2% and reached its highest in the last five years being traded over 11,5 Lei per USD. According to the National Bank experts and economy-watchers the fluctuations are largely due to strong supply of foreign currency, mainly money sent home by Moldovans working abroad[…]
1000 and 100 days of the Government of V. Tarlev
Anatoli Gudim, April 25, 2004
On April 19, 2001 Parliament has quickly — in a half an hour — approved the Programme of activity of the next, the 9th beginning from 1990, Government of the Republic of Moldova. Contrary to expectations of skeptics (despite multiple changes to the team made during the “game”) it is this government that turned out to be a long-liver[…]
Liberalisation of capital flows
Sorin Hadarca, March 14, 2004
Liberalisation of capital flows has been right from the beginning a rather controversial issue in the Moldovan foreign exchange policy. Restrictions on capital flow imposed on Moldovan citizens stem from the efforts undertaken by authorities at the dawns of independence in order to keep a stable exchange rate of the national currency[…]
Inflation in the Republic of Moldova: causes and effects
Iurie Gotisan, February 9, 2004
National Bank of the Republic of Moldova is responsible for the monetary and foreign exchange policy. Under its bylaws NBM’s main goal is to “realise and maintain the stability of the national currency that ultimately provides reduction of the inflation rate, ensures the general level of prices and of the exchange rate of MDL”[…]
Maastricht paradox. Is there a lesson for Moldova?
Sorin Hadarca, February 8, 2004
European Monetary Union, represented by the countries that adopted a single European currency — Euro, are nowadays split when it comes to complying with Maastricht criteria[…]
2003 economic overview
Iurie Gotisan, January 25, 2004
In an interview to a TV channel at the end of 2003, Prime-Minister firmly stated that it was under the incumbent governing that GDP registered a steady growth three years in a row[…]
Macroeconomic impact of the money sent from abroad
Lucia Hadarca, December 14, 2003
The money wired by the guest workers home have become an important factor influencing macroeconomic environment of the Republic of Moldova. For the great majority of families deprived of sufficient income to cover their daily needs those money help them stay afloat[…]
Reflections on the state budget for year 2004
Iurie Gotisan, November 30, 2003
The state budget, approved in the third and final reading by the Parliament was declared to be aimed at enforcing the Government work plan, in reality it has proven Government’s incapacity to translate Communist Party ideological message and political options into a clear budgetary policy[…]
Domestic Implications of the Economic Policy in the Foreign Sector of Moldovan Economy
Iurie Gotisan, November 16, 2003
Recently National Bank of the Republic of Moldova released some figures, in fact rather surprising ones, on the growing trade deficit that has reached 400 million USD in the last nine months as compared to only 240 million in the same period last year[…]
The budget with many unknown variables
Anatoli Gudim, September 7, 2003
At the beginning of September the Government web site www.moldova.md published the draft of the state budget of the Republic of Moldova for 2004. This is a good example of “glasnost”[…]
The floating of the Moldovan Leu — free or managed?
Tudor Neghina, April 27, 2003
The exchange rate of the Moldovan Leu (MDL) has floated significantly. The issue of currency exchange rate may be approached in a number of ways[…]
Financial challenges lying ahead of Moldova in 2003
Adrian Dumitriu, March 23, 2003
It is probably due to the fact that ruling party’s electoral program has been declared as socially oriented, that different Ministries and Departments have engaged in a competition of producing socially oriented drafts[…]
Economy: events & commentaries
Anatoli Gudim, March 9, 2003
In the last couple of weeks economic issues were the major concern of the country leadership, representatives of international monetary organizations, and economic media outlets. Judging from a multiple perspective, one may conclude that there are major risks at stake as far as economy is concerned, but there are opportunities as well[…]