On the eve of early elections BPO suggests that…

Igor Botan / July 20, 2009

Things go wrong…

According to the Barometer of Public Opinion (BPO) poll commissioned by the Institute of Public Policy (IPP) before the early parliamentary elections, the state of things is worse in Moldova than before. As much as 67.4 percent of respondents fear that the Republic of Moldova is moving in a wrong direction and only 19.6 percent believe that the things go well. Thus, consequences of the economic crisis, which authorities assured that do not exist, hit the welfare of people.

Do you think our country is moving in a good or wrong direction?

More than 50 percent of respondents fear that the economic situation in the country is worse than a year ago. Just approximately 15 percent believe that the current economic situation is better than a year ago. At level of personal perception more than 40 percent of respondents fear that their life is worse than a year ago, and only 16 percent say that their life is better. Seventy-two percent of respondents affirm that their household incomes have decreased and 34 percent say that at least someone in their families has become jobless. Approximately 25 percent of respondents say that remittances from their families working abroad have decreased. Therefore, 65 percent of respondents say that they cannot make savings any longer; the same percent is discontent with the economic situation in the country, and only 7.5 percent of respondents are content. The economic situation is worsening because of the global financial crisis. Approximately 55 percent of respondents think that the Republic of Moldova was touched by the global crisis to a large extent, while 35.6 percent consider that it was affected a little.

April 5, 2009 elections were unfair…

According to the BPO findings, people in Moldova do not trust in politics and electoral process. Hence, only 28 percent of respondents consider that people’s will does not rule in the Republic of Moldova, while approximately 60 percent do not think so. Only approximately 42 percent of respondents think that elections in Moldova are generally free and fair, while about 46 percent do not think so. This attitude is also confirmed for the April 5, 2009 elections. Following the complexity of circumstances, 47 percent of respondents think that holding early parliamentary elections, on July 29, 2009, was vitally necessary, while 42 percent expressed an absolutely different view.

The BPO findings confirm that the early parliamentary elections are held under the pressure of the April 7 events. Approximately 97 percent of respondents have heard about post-electoral riots, while about 84 percent have an opinion about protests. It is worth noting that approximately 34 percent of respondents think that the April 7 events were peaceful, but redirected. At the same time, 50 percent of respondents think that the protests were a well-prepared attempt aimed at subversion of state power. At the same tie, both the opposition and the ruling party are blamed to an equal extent for what has happened, notably 27 percent each. It means that despite the propagandistic effort and absolute control on the Moldovan media space, the authorities failed to derive the expected benefit from accusing the opposition of coup d’etat attempt.

Interest for politics did not change much…

Despite the April 7 events and further developments, the interest of people towards politics did not change much. However, the percent of those who are interested much and very much in politics has increased.

To what extent are you interested in politics?

But this rise is on account of those who are interested neither much, nor little. In general, the percent of those who are interested little and very little in politics is almost constant. In this regard, it is worth noting that the percent of respondents who said they will participate in the July 29 early election is usual — approximately 80 percent.

Given the fact that approximately 1/5 of Moldovan population is abroad, a real turnout of below 50 percent would be recorded for the July 29 elections, but no problem regarding the crossing of the 1/3 election validation threshold should appear, though people are tired after the April 5 elections and early elections take place on summer and not on Sunday as usually. However, the strained situation in society could motivate people to participate in elections very actively. Anyway, the participation in elections is so far the No.1 unknown, carrying the heaviest impact on final results.

Results of July 29 elections could be cardinally different of those from April 5…

The BPO findings reveal that on the eve of the early elections the trust rating of the Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova (PCRM) is on decline — 40 percent compared with 47 percent in March 2009. There are at least three explanations. First, the welfare of people is seriously touched by the crisis and the PCRM assured that the country it rules is “an island of stability” detoured by the crisis. Second, the PCRM was incapable to ensure the social-political stability it has promised during the campaign for the April 5 election. Third, the PCRM lost a political figure who enjoyed the highest confidence rating, former speaker Marian Lupu, who did not want any longer to stay with a party which decided to keep the interior minister in the governmental team, as the latter did not know to protect the main state buildings and further dedicated himself to “youth hunting.”

How much do you trust the following parties?

In this context, the withdrawal of Marian Lupu and his coming to the Democratic Party of Moldova (PDM) was expected to improve much the PDM rating from 7 percent in March up to 25 percent in July. The coming of Marian Lupu to PDM was plied on two trends confirmed by latest successful evolutions of the Liberal Party (PL) and Liberal Democratic Party of Moldova (PLDM), which produced a spectacular change on Moldovan political scene by involving some young leaders and competent teams. Making the PDM leadership younger, Marian Lupu succeeded to attract a young and very competent team like that of PLDM.

The trust ratings of liberal parties — PL (25 percent vs. 21 percent in March), PLDM (22 percent vs. 17 percent) and Moldova Noastra Alliance (16 percent vs. 15 percent) have grown or were at the last levels, as before the April 5 elections. The ascending trend is probably due to the so-called moral victory, attributed to liberal parties by the media supporting them, after they did not participate in election of the PCRM candidate to the presidential seat. It is worth mentioning that the three liberal parties announced long before the election campaign for the April 5 elections that they would not vote for a communist candidate to the presidential office because of abuses and harassments faced by the opposition after the PCRM leader has stopped the political partnership in July 2007. Hence, liberal parties kept their promise and their electors appreciated this action.

The same perception was generally projected on trust in leaders of main political parties. The trust in PCRM leader Vladimir Voronin has decreased from 23 percent before the April 5 elections down to 17 percent in July (answer to an open question).

What political personality in Moldova do you trust the most?

The ratings of PL and PLDM leaders Dorin Chirtoaca and Vlad Filat have easily increased, while the rating of the chairman of Moldova Noastra Alliance (AMN) has easily decreased within the margin of error (±2.6 percent). On the other hand, the rating of the new PDM leader, Marian Lupu, has increased from approximately 7 percent in March up to about 11 percent in July.

It is important that answers to some questions strongly correlate, so that they reveal the conclusion that not more than five parties will enter the new Parliament. As regards the intention to participate in the July 29 elections, approximately 22 percent of respondents are undecided so far, and about 6 percent did not want to answer. Thus, with approximately four months after the April 5 elections the percent of the undecided reaches again the usual margins. As the support of citizens has certain stability on a short-term, on the eve of the July 29 elections one may expect preferences to change under influence of the economic and political crisis related to the April 7 events. It is interesting to note in this context that respondents of the three liberal parties count for approximately 35 percent of overall supporters. This number is very close to the one calculated on the basis of measuring before the April 5 elections, as well as the one established after the proper election. In this respect, one may note that the support to the liberal bloc is constant, while the observed differences are due to changes of preferences on the liberal segment.

If parliamentary elections were held in Moldova the next Sunday, what party would you vote?

On the other hand, one may suppose that the PDM, since it is led by Marian Lupu, attracts the support expressed formerly for so-called centrist parties of social-democratic orientation and some PCRM supporters. In these circumstances, the main race in the last week of campaign will likely involve the electoral segment of the undecided. According to previous surveys, approximately 1/4 of participants in elections decide whom to vote in the last week before the elections.

Conclusions may be as follows…

Maximum five out of eight political parties participating in the current electoral race will enter the Parliament which will be elected on July 29;
In conditions of a divided society and polarised political spectrum after the April 7 developments, the rating of the three liberal parties did not generally change. Ratings of the liberal camp could change on account of partners from informal coalition;
Given the BPO findings and new trends, the task of PCRM to win a qualified majority in order to enable the future PCRM faction to elect a chief of state seems to be unachievable without support of other factions;
The propagandistic effort of PCRM to persuade people that the liberal opposition tried a coup d’etat or orange revolution on April 7 did not bring the wanted results. Despite the absolute media control by PCRM, a massive segment of population realised that those having plans to organise coups d’etat discuss with government representatives the way of handing in not of calming down the spirits, the way it happened during the April 7 meeting between President Vladimir Voronin and leaders of the liberal opposition. Accusations of being organisers of an orange revolution are absurd in general. Orange revolutions were organised by opposition in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan to obtain early elections. As for Moldova, the same goal may be accomplished without any orange revolution, just by not participating in election of chief of state;
If results of the April 5 elections reveal that approximately 2/3 of undecided electors voted the PCRM, then the things have changed much regarding the July 29 elections. In particular, PCRM and its leaders were on an ascending trend on different dimensions in BPO before the April 5 elections, while now the PCRM trends are on decline on almost all dimensions. This could mean that the support of the undecided could be distributed more proportionally among PCRM, liberal parties and centrist PDM. Given the trends revealed by BPO findings, the PDM is credited with greatest chances to attract the votes of the undecided. But these chances should be also achieved. Perhaps, for this reason the PCRM launched a massive media poisoning campaign against PDM. At the same time, PCRM leader Vladimir Voronin released a peacemaking message, nosing the possibility of a post-electoral coalition on the basis of the so-called five principles. But the passage from bellicose messages to peacemaking messages is a sign that PCRM realises well the lack of chances to get the wanted score;
Given the very low percent of parties which will not cross the electoral threshold at the July 29 elections, PCRM will be able to get 3–4 more mandates after the proportional distribution of ballots. This confirms the situation that PCRM will be short of a simple majority to elect leading organs of the Parliament and make the Government;
The turnout is so far the No.1 unknown of the July 29 elections. The turnout may have an unexpectedly strong impact. An eventual disproportional participation of different segments of electors in the voting would both help the PCRM win an absolute majority and descend it under the number of mandates (41) needed to lock the election of chief of state;
Anyway, the July 29 elections will confirm the change of generation of leaders of the three parties — PL, PLDM and PDM, who will cardinally influence the political life in Moldova throughout several electoral cycles. It is important that each of the three parties control some distinct political niches — right, centre-right and centre-left. Just the change of the PCRM leader is expected so far. This change could come very quickly, depending on the result of PCRM at the July 29 elections. It seems that Iurie Muntean is being prepared to succeed Vladimir Voronin. Although he is not a PCRM member, Muntean goes to the forefront and almost copies Voronin’s behaviour, but he does not have his charm. PDM has chances to attract most of PCRM supporters in the future, should PCRM keep promoting such potential successors of Voronin.

Patriotic exhibitionism and Romanian danger	Post-electoral flames